The military situation, particularly in eastern Ukraine, is tense. Russia is advancing further and further into Ukrainian territory. While there were still successes on the Ukrainian side at the beginning of the war, such as the successful defence of Kiev or the pushback of Russian troops in the south of the country and in the Donbass, Dr. Ulrich Kühn believes that the war has now become a war of attrition in Russia’s favour.
In the podcast “Streitkräfte und Strategien” on NDR Info, the head of IFSH’s Arms Control and Emerging Technologies research department discusses the high human cost of two and a half years of war and shares his assessment for a negotiated solution.
It is shocking to see how many soldiers are dying on the front line and the extent to which Russia is attacking civilian targets in Ukraine, so given the human suffering, it is understandable to call for negotiations. However, the preconditions for this are just as unclear as the possible consequences, explained Kühn. The West has failed to define its goals and conditions for victory. The maximum goal of a complete liberation of Ukraine seems unlikely today. Ukraine is not in a good military position in terms of personnel and material. If Russia were convinced that it would only have to wage war for a few months or perhaps a year to militarily force Ukraine into submission, a negotiated solution would be unlikely. It is also necessary to reflect on what a ceasefire could look like and how it could be secured. Additionally, consideration should be given to whether countries from the global South, such as Brazil, India or China, should be brought to the negotiating table in order to secure a possible ceasefire. Peace researcher Kühn, on the other hand, believes that a NATO membership for Ukraine is unlikely.
The episode „Zeit für Verhandlungen?“ (Day 958 with Ulrich Kühn) of the podcast „Streitkräfte und Strategien“ on NDR Info can be listened to in the NDR media library.
©IFSH/Felix Matthies
