Seven days before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, Dr. Ulrich Kühn speaks with Deutschlandfunk about the future of Ukraine and whether the country’s survival can be ensured without US assistance. According to Ulrich Kühn, Europe actually has the necessary resources and infrastructure. However, as long as there is no shared concept on how to support Ukraine, it will be difficult to secure the country without the US. If a negotiated solution to the war were to succeed, the outcome would probably neither be a NATO membership for Ukraine nor the deployment of Western troops there. It is more likely that Ukraine will remain neutral and that the West would need to arm the country with around ten billion euros per year over the coming decades in order to deter a renewed attack by Russia.
Missing concept for peace negotiations and future perspective
The political situation in the West is also currently rather unfavorable for Ukraine. Donald Trump, for example, lacks a well thought-out strategy and presumably also shows a lack of interest in details in a potential negotiation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Germany, which is currently in the midst of an election campaign, also has no long-term plan, criticizes the peace researcher. Germany is a political and economic heavyweight and must therefore take on corresponding responsibility in Europe. At the same time, in the current discussion about the defense spending of NATO member states, the IFSH researcher explained that joint action by the European countries would also make sense here in order to ensure collective defense capability.
You can listen to the Deutschlandfunk interview “Wie weiter in der Ukraine-Hilfe? Interview mit Ulrich Kühn, IFSH Hamburg” from January, 13, 2025, in the Dlf media library.
©IFSH/Felix Matthies
