Will the year 2025 be more peaceful than the past year, or will existing conflicts continue to escalate? In an interview with the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), IFSH arms control expert Dr. Ulrich Kühn paints a rather bleak picture for the new year.
Many future scenarios are currently being considered for Ukraine. However, the IFSH expert believes that a negotiated solution is unlikely, especially if the conflicting parties do not even sit down at the same table. A failure of negotiations could even lead to an intensification of hostilities. Ulrich Kühn also fears that the situation in the Middle East could further escalate. The Iranian regime has lost significant power and influence in recent months. It may attempt to consolidate its power and, for example, continue pursuing nuclear weapons. This, in turn, could lead to a preemptive strike by Israel and the United States, resulting in another war. Additionally, the specter of an American-Chinese war continues to loom over Taiwan, explains Ulrich Kühn. A shift towards a less confrontational policy towards China is not expected even after Donald Trump’s reelection.
You can find the RND article “Kriege und Krisen: Wird das neue Jahr friedlicher als das alte?” from December 28, 2024, here (German only).
©IFSH/Felix Matthies
