IFSH Contribution to the German Forum on Security Policy 2025 of the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS)
China is undertaking a massive military build-up—both in the conventional and nuclear domains. By 2035, the country aims to comprehensively modernize its armed forces. At the same time, China is investing in cyber capabilities and pursuing an increasingly assertive foreign policy, which is exacerbating security tensions.
During an online event held as part of the German Forum on Security Policy, experts from IFSH and Member of Parliament Nicolas Zippelius (CDU) analyzed the security policy challenges arising from China’s military build-up. Around 60 representatives from federal politics, think tank employees, and interested citizens accepted the invitation. The event was organized by the Berlin office of IFSH.
Conventional Build-Up and Economic Weaknesses
China’s military build-up encompasses all branches of the armed forces, explained Dr. Sabine Mokry, IFSH researcher in the Arms Control and Emerging Technologies research area. However, there is a particular focus on the navy—which now has the largest fleet in the world—as well as on key technologies such as artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons. According to Dr. Mokry, China’s arms build-up is leading to growing insecurity, particularly due to the increased risk of military incidents with the US. At the same time, however, China remains dependent on imports in key technology sectors and is facing demographic and economic challenges.
Nuclear Modernization Fosters Strategic Mistrust
In recent years, China has massively expanded its nuclear arsenal despite officially renouncing the first use of nuclear weapons (no-first-use policy) and is investing in modern delivery systems such as hypersonic weapons, intermediate-range missiles and new submarine-launched intercontinental missiles. According to Wolfgang Rudischhauser, this development is a response to the rivalry with the US and is intended to consolidate China’s great power status. The Senior Fellow in the Arms Control and Emerging Technologies research area at IFSH warned that this would increase mistrust in the West that China could use nuclear threats as a deterrent in a potential Taiwan conflict. He therefore called for more transparency and dialog between China and the USA in order to prevent a nuclear arms race in Asia and ensure regional stability.
China’s Cyber Potential and Germany’s Response Options
China’s cyber strategy also reflects the country’s growing geopolitical ambitions and, according to observers, has intensified significantly in recent years. China’s cyber operations are becoming more aggressive, technically sophisticated, and increasingly focused on preparing for the sabotage of Western critical infrastructure, explained Dr. Matthias Schulze, Head of the International Cybersecurity (ICS) research area at IFSH. According to Chinese strategic thinking, cyber operations are a central component of future military confrontations, aimed at disabling military command infrastructure and deployment capabilities in the early stages of a conflict, the expert said. China’s cyber security strategy and cyber security architecture are also geared towards such conflict scenarios: Western IT, and thus potential backdoors, should be eliminated from China’s own critical infrastructure, while at the same time vulnerabilities in Western IT systems are systematically collected to prepare for offensive operations. According to Schulze, the People’s Liberation Army’s cyber units have recently been highly centralized, their efficiency has been increased and they are increasingly relying on cyber militias from universities and the private sector. He views these developments with concern and recommends that Germany prepare for a worst-case scenario.
Political Implications for the New German Government
Nicolas Zippelius (CDU), member of the Bundestag and China expert for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, emphasized the need to consistently develop Germany’s China strategy and back it up with concrete measures. He highlighted the establishment of a central China competence center anchored in the coalition agreement as an important step, which should bundle China expertise and serve as a point of contact for policymakers, administration and business. Zippelius called for closer European cooperation and more unity in responding to the challenges posed by China. Comprehensive risk reduction—that is, the targeted reduction of Germany’s and Europe’s strategic dependencies in critical areas—is particularly important, he said.
Discussion With Event Participants
In the discussion that followed, particpants raised numerous questions for the experts: What threat scenarios would be possible should an impending Taiwan conflict escalate? What would be the effects of and the best defense against Chinese cyberattacks – including against Germany? And how should we assess the intensified cooperation between Russia and North Korea, as recently seen in the war against Ukraine? If you are interested in the discussion, we invite you to watch the recording of the event from May 5, 2025 on our YouTube channel. The video is available in German only. Further information on German Forum on Security Policy of the Federal Academy for Security Policy can be found here.
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